Victor Wembanyama has been the most promising player to have risen in expectations in the recent years. The French center brings big size, skill, and top-tier shot blocking, and there are already plenty of fans discussing Hall of Fame or even GOAT prospects for the player.
However, hype is no proof. This is a comparison of his first two seasons with some of the greatest big men in NBA history. We consider his scoring, shooting and overall value to determine if he’s on their path or on his own.
Why the Promise Around the Young Star Is So High
In January 2025, Wembanyama will turn 21, but a lot of people believe him to be one of the best players in the NBA and actually a potential face of the NBA. 77.1% of those who voted in an RG poll believe his ceiling is Hall of Famer or the greatest of all time. When the study was conducted, he had only amassed 108 NBA games, so the burning question is how does he match those lofty expectations?
How We Picked the Best Big Men of All Time
No one knows which are the best big men, so the study employed a straightforward criterion, Win Shares per 48 minutes. A player’s contribution to his team per 48 minutes they play together, so it will penalize players who have long playing careers but don’t really contribute much. It goes back to 1951-52, which is most of the NBA history. Nikola Jokic, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Tim Duncan, Shaquille O’Neal and Giannis Antetokounmpo are among the top 15.
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Offensive Growth: Scoring, Assists and Three Point Shooting
The legends got better on average on points, assists and effective field goals (which accounts for threes) by year two and the big men didn’t really jump that much in that first season. Wembanyama’s points went up 3.2 average per game, which is decent but still not up there with that. He saw his assists drop by 0.1 per game.
What he did well is made up of efficiency, as his field goal percentage improved by 0.044. The primary reason was three-point shooting: He shot a lot more and made a lot more.
| Season | 3P Attempts/Game | 3P Made/Game | 3P% |
| 2023-24 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 32.5% |
| 2024-25 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 35.4% |
The vast majority of NBA greats had poor 3-point shooting. If he continues to develop in this area he may be extremely difficult to protect.
Beginner’s Topic: Total Value Improvements: WS/48, PER, and BPMThree all-in-one stats were used to assess overall impact: Win Shares per 48 minutes, Player Efficiency Rating (PER), and Box Plus/Minus (BPM). The legends showed an average improvement across the three in years one to two.
Wembanyama didn’t average that. His WS/48 rose by 0.050, his PER by 1.6, and his BPM by 2.0. Nevertheless these are real achievements. His BPM went from 5.2 to 7.2. 5.2 is more of an All-Star level than an All-Star consideration, and 7.2 is more of an All-Star level than an MVP-level season, per Basketball-Reference.com. He jumped a whole notch, although the legends jumped higher.
Is Slower Growth a Problem for Him? The Defense Factor
Not necessarily. Defense was not rated separately in the study as it is difficult to measure. There are few blocks and steals, and a lot of things outside of the players’ control factors into the team’s outcome. However, Wembanyama’s most unique quality is in his defense. In his rookie season he set a league record for blocks per game with 3.58 and was second in Defensive Player of the Year balloting. He bumped that up to 4.03 in year two, the highest it’s been since Dikembe Mutombo in 1995-96 scored 4.49.
He also needs to have a strong foundation. But he was already in the top tier of the group as a rookie, so he had less room to improve than those who had lower rankings.
Final Word
Wembanyama might not be jumping from a different planet, but he has now taken a step up in the league to become one of the best. He is a combination of size and skill that isn’t very commonly available. It’s not time to talk about him being the greatest yet, but his start is in line with the all time greats.
FAQs
1.Is Wembanyama on track to become an all-time great?
They are good early indicators. He had the same number of gains as he had in Year 2, but began at a higher rookie level.
2.How much did his three-point shooting improve?
Through January 24, 2025, he went from 5.5 attempts per game at 32.5% as a rookie to 9.2 attempts at 35.4% in year two.
3.Why does his defence not easily be measured?
Rare events (blocks and steals) and many factors influence team results. However, as a rookie, he led his way in blocks and averaged 4.03 blocks in year two.
4.Which stats do you see as being comparable to the legends?
Top 15 big men were determined by the study using the Win Shares per 48 minutes. Then it looked at points, assists, effective field goal percentage, Box Plus/Minus and PER.
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